On the Variance of Neural Network Training with respect to Test Sets and Distributions

Neural network trainings are stochastic, causing the performance of trained networks to vary across repeated runs of training.We contribute the following results towards understanding this variation.(1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which their test-sets are sampled.(2) We introduce the independent errors assumption and show that it suffices to recover the structure and variance of the empirical accuracy distribution across repeated runs of training.(3) We prove that test-set variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of identically trained networks are calibrated (Jiang et al., 2021), and demonstrate that the variance of binary classification trainings closely follows a simple formula based on the error rate and number of test examples.(4) We conduct preliminary studies of data augmentation, learning rate, finetuning instability and distribution-shift through the lens of variance between runs.