Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly informing societal resource allocations by identifying individuals for targeting. Policymakers often build these systems with the assumption that by gathering more observations on individuals, they can improve predictive accuracy and, consequently, allocation efficiency. An overlooked yet consequential aspect of prediction-driven allocations is that of timing. The planner has to trade off relying on earlier and potentially noisier predictions to intervene before individuals experience undesirable outcomes, or they may wait to gather more observations to make more precise allocations. We examine this tension using a simple mathematical model, where the planner collects observations on individuals to improve predictions over time. We analyze both the ranking induced by these predictions and optimal resource allocation. We show that though individual prediction accuracy improves over time, counter-intuitively, the average ranking loss can worsen. As a result, the planner's ability to improve social welfare can decline. We identify inequality as a driving factor behind this phenomenon. Our findings provide a nuanced perspective and challenge the conventional wisdom that it is preferable to wait for more accurate predictions to ensure the most efficient allocations.

Identifying the root causes of anomalies in multivariate time series is challenging due to the complex dependencies among the series. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive approach called AERCA that inherently integrates Granger causal discovery with root cause analysis. By defining anomalies as interventions on the exogenous variables of time series, AERCA not only learns the Granger causality among time series but also explicitly models the distributions of exogenous variables under normal conditions. AERCA then identifies the root causes of anomalies by highlighting exogenous variables that significantly deviate from their normal states. Experiments on multiple synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that AERCA can accurately capture the causal relationships among time series and effectively identify the root causes of anomalies.

We address the common yet often-overlooked selection bias in interventional studies, where subjects are selectively enrolled into experiments. For instance, participants in a drug trial are usually patients of the relevant disease; A/B tests on mobile applications target existing users only, and gene perturbation studies typically focus on specific cell types, such as cancer cells. Ignoring this bias leads to incorrect causal discovery results. Even when recognized, the existing paradigm for interventional causal discovery still fails to address it. This is because subtle differences in when and where interventions happen can lead to significantly different statistical patterns. We capture this dynamic by introducing a graphical model that explicitly accounts for both the observed world (where interventions are applied) and the counterfactual world (where selection occurs while interventions have not been applied). We characterize the Markov property of the model, and propose a provably sound algorithm to identify causal relations as well as selection mechanisms up to the equivalence class, from data with soft interventions and unknown targets. Through synthetic and real-world experiments, we demonstrate that our algorithm effectively identifies true causal relations despite the presence of selection bias.

Diffusion-based video generation technology has advanced significantly, catalyzing a proliferation of research in human animation. While breakthroughs have been made in driving human animation through various modalities for portraits, most of current solutions for human body animation still focus on video-driven methods, leaving audio-driven taking body generation relatively underexplored. In this paper, we introduce CyberHost, a one-stage audio-driven talking body generation framework that addresses common synthesis degradations in half-body animation, including hand integrity, identity consistency, and natural motion.CyberHost's key designs are twofold. Firstly, the Region Attention Module (RAM) maintains a set of learnable, implicit, identity-agnostic latent features and combines them with identity-specific local visual features to enhance the synthesis of critical local regions. Secondly, the Human-Prior-Guided Conditions introduce more human structural priors into the model, reducing uncertainty in generated motion patterns and thereby improving the stability of the generated videos.To our knowledge, CyberHost is the first one-stage audio-driven human diffusion model capable of zero-shot video generation for the human body. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CyberHost surpasses previous works in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. CyberHost can also be extended to video-driven and audio-video hybrid-driven scenarios, achieving similarly satisfactory results.

With the introduction of video diffusion model, audio-conditioned human video generation has recently achieved significant breakthroughs in both the naturalness of motion and the synthesis of portrait details. Due to the limited control of audio signals in driving human motion, existing methods often add auxiliary spatial signals such as movement regions to stabilize movements, which compromise the naturalness and freedom of motion. To address this issue, we propose an end-to-end audio-only conditioned video diffusion model named Loopy. Specifically, we designed two key modules: an inter- and intra-clip temporal module and an audio-to-latents module. These enable the model to better utilize long-term motion dependencies and establish a stronger audio-portrait movement correlation. Consequently, the model can generate more natural and stable portrait videos with subtle facial expressions, without the need for manually setting movement constraints. Extensive experiments show that Loopy outperforms recent audio-driven portrait diffusion models, delivering more lifelike and high-quality results across various scenarios. Video samples are available at https://loopyavataranony.github.io/